ABSTRACT
Background: Risk factors associated with COVID-19 incidence of death would aid to notify the most favorable management strategies, hang about undecided, Moreover, studies regarding this issue are limited in Ethiopia and no region-wise study is conducted. Hence, the study investigated the COVID-19 incidence of death and its predictors in the Amhara regional state, Ethiopia. Methods: A facility-based retrospective survey was conducted at all Amhara regional state COVID-19 treatment centers from 13 March 2020, through 13 January 2022. Epidata version 3.1 and STATA version 14 were used for data entry and analysis, respectively. Linearized survey analysis in a stratified Cox regression model was fitted to identify independent risk factors. P-value with 95% CI for hazard ratio was used for testing the significance at alpha 0.05. Results: A total of 28,533 study participants were analyzed in this study. Of these, 2873 (11.2%) died and 25,660 (88.8%) were recovered from COVID-19. The death rate was 11.78 per 1000 person-days of observation with a median survival time of 32 days with IQR [12, 44]. Patients with co-morbidities (AHR = 1.54: 95% CI: 1.51-1.55), patients with age <5-year (AHR = 1.69: 95% CI: 1.78-1.81) and patients with age 60+ years (AHR = 2.91: 95% CI: 1.79-3.99), patients with asymptomatic diseases condition (AHR =1.15: 95% CI: 1.01-1.19), and being male (AHR = 1.22: 95% CI: 1.18-1.27) were independent significant risk factors of death from COVID-19. Conclusion: A relatively high incidence of death from COVID-19 was found in this study. Significant risk factors were identified as patients with age <5 years, patients with age 60+ Years, being male, patients having at least one comorbid condition, and patients with asymptomatic disease conditions. These factors should be taken into consideration for a strategy of quarantining and treating COVID-19 patients.
ABSTRACT
Background: Currently, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the leading cause of death and the rate of mortality is rapidly increasing over time. There is a paucity of information regarding the incidence and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients from low-income countries, particularly in Ethiopia. Objective: To assess incidence and predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients admitted to treatment centers in North West Ethiopia. Methods: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 552 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases at Debre Markos University and Tibebe Ghion Hospital COVID-19 treatment centers in North West Ethiopia from March 2020 to March 2021. Data were collected from patients' medical records using a structured data extraction tool. Cox-proportional hazards regression models was fitted to identify significant predictors of mortality. Result: The overall mortality rate of COVID-19 was 4.7, (95 % CI: 3.3-6.8) per 1000 person day observations. Older age (AHR: 4.9; 95% CI: 1.8, 13.5), rural residence (AHR: 0.18; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.64), presence of hypertension (AHR: 3.04; 95% CI: 1.18, 7.8), presence of diabetes mellitus (AHR: 8.1; 95% CI: 2.9, 22.4) and cardiovascular disease (AHR: 5.2; 95% CI: (1.69, 16.2) were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusions: The rate of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in this study was low. COVID-19 patients from urban residences, older patients, and patients with comorbidity have a high risk of death. These high risk groups should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccinations, and early screening and appropriate intervention should be established on presentation to health facility.